John Edwards...Kingmaker?

While the theory rests on some considerably long odds, Politico had an interesting article about how John Edwards' position in the polls could bring him some dividends come the convention in Denver this summer.

The skinny of it is this...if he sticks it out, as he claims he will, through the convention this summer and continues to pick up something more than 15% of the primary/caucus vote per state, Edwards is going to show up at the convention with too few delegates to win, but potentially enough to push Obama or Clinton over the edge.

If this happens, he's going to have some considerable bargaining power in getting some promissory notes out of whoever he may decide to help out.

It's unclear, of course, if Edwards can continue to pull this much of the vote as it becomes clearer and clearer that he's simply not going to win the delegate race. Even though I think the sophistication of IA and NH voters is a little bit overblown, I don't know that the voters on Super Tuesday and beyond are going to be calculating enough to engage in this strategy (which he's not commenting on or admitting to).

Further, we are still early on in the process and natural momentum or big events could create a mass movement of Dems to one leader or the other, rendering him essentially irrelevant.

Nonetheless, it was an interesting process piece and those interested in the nuts and bolts of what's going on may agree with me.