Friday, December 21, 2007

Dickin' the Primary Season

Dick Morris has an article in the New York Post this morning looking ahead to the Michigan primary as the make or break moment for the GOP.

By their January 15 primary, the dust will have settled from the first three idiosyncratic states and the time go get some real Joe-mentum will have arrived.

He doesn't make a hard prediction but only shows that Michigan is like much of the rest of the country now on the GOP side...Huck, Rudy and Mitt are engaged in a three way with McCain still within striking distance.

While I'm anxiously awaiting the IA/NH/SC contests, it all does seem to be a high-drama prelude to when the 'real' states start voting.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Its tough to tell, as in 2004 it was over by the time IA responded. Kerry won the nomination because he did really well in IA.

Can someone really come off of the first 3 states without winning and still win. By that time they are cast Losers and will be out of the race endorsing another candidate.

Its all about first strike capability, not the mine shaft gap.

Dan said...

Iowa just makes me want to yell...

;-)

At the risk of copping out, what was that old thing from logic...an early state victory is a necessary but not sufficient component needed for the nomination.

As evidence of the not sufficient, just ask Presidents Buchanan and Robertson how it works...