One of the truisms I learned in Mr. Horvath's government class is that the primary season is all about
expectations.
If you're supposed to win, you better win big. If you are supposed to get nothing and wind up with 10 votes, you really win.
We saw this yesterday at the Ames Iowa Republican straw poll.
Flipp Romney, who spent like a drunken sailor, came out on top, but for that kind of bling, he should have. Mike Huckabee, running a comparatively shoestring campaign came in second with 18% of the vote. He was closely trailed by Kansas Senator Sam Brownback with 15%.
The votes that #s 2 & 3 got represent the conventional wisdom 'base vote'
of the party.
Notably, the no-shows Giuliani, McCain and Thompson barely even registered yesterday. You do need to organize in Iowa and they consciously stayed out of this one.
The next exciting thing to watch is how Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada jockey for position in how they time the dates of their caucuses/primaries to maximize influence (money) in the upcoming season.
expectations.
If you're supposed to win, you better win big. If you are supposed to get nothing and wind up with 10 votes, you really win.
We saw this yesterday at the Ames Iowa Republican straw poll.
Flipp Romney, who spent like a drunken sailor, came out on top, but for that kind of bling, he should have. Mike Huckabee, running a comparatively shoestring campaign came in second with 18% of the vote. He was closely trailed by Kansas Senator Sam Brownback with 15%.
The votes that #s 2 & 3 got represent the conventional wisdom 'base vote'
of the party.
Notably, the no-shows Giuliani, McCain and Thompson barely even registered yesterday. You do need to organize in Iowa and they consciously stayed out of this one.
The next exciting thing to watch is how Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada jockey for position in how they time the dates of their caucuses/primaries to maximize influence (money) in the upcoming season.
2 comments:
I thought the real news was the 'don't know' getting about 42%. Can't remember where I saw it, but that seems to be the real news.
The %s seem to add up to 100, but I will concede that the low turnout (compared to 1999) probably is the best proof of a general malaise on the GOP faithful's part.
Flipp has just been named the tallest building in Topeka.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/08/ames.php
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